The Early Line: Round 11

Submitted by Nick Tedeschi on 19/05/2012

Wests Tigers have opened up 1.5-point favourites in their clash with New Zealand at Leichhardt Oval on Friday night. Both teams have been difficult to bet on this season. The Warriors have won 10 of 16 against the Tigers including 1 of 2 at Leicchardt but there is no play in this one.

Total would suggest under with the Tigers off a bye and very much an under team but the Warriors are 8-2 over and these two have gone over 42 in 7 of their last 9. No bet.

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May 19 Racing Selections

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 18/05/2012

Another week…… another couple of placings….. no winners. I feel like a fielding captain who keeps shuffling their slips cordon, only to see the next edge safely disappear through a gap that only moments earlier had a fielder patrolling it. When you bet win only, five placings from your last seven one-unit bets (and six placings from the last 10) isn’t exactly heartening. The only saving grace is that surely the drought has to end soon, right? In any event, tips for this weekend cover the May 19 meetings at Flemington, Scone, Doomben (featuring the Group 1 Doomben Cup) and Morphettville.

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ANZ Championships - Round 8 Tips

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 18/05/2012

The big winners last weekend were the Swifts, who upset the competition leaders and solidified their hold on fourth spot. The race for the finals appears to have boiled down already to six contenders, with the Firebirds and Magic (each of whom have won their past two games by double digit margins) currently on the outside looking in. On the punting front, Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro split his two recommended bets last week to progress to a very impressive 12-4 against the spread in 2012. He returns to give his thoughts on Round 8.

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The AFL Lines - Round 8

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 17/05/2012

It’s amazing to think that after a preseason where the overarching verdict was ‘same old, same old’ we can be seven weeks into the 2012 competition and find the defending premier sitting in tenth, the losing grand finalist in seventh and the current flag favourite in ninth. Not only that, but GWS have thrown wooden spoon markets into disarray with their inaugural franchise win over the Gold Coast – those who took the $1.12 back in March about them trailing the field home are no doubt feeling pensive. Speaking of pensive, Making The Nut’s AFL betting offices have not exactly been dishing out high fives with must gusto or frequency of late. Greg Oberscheidt and Cliff Bingham are seeking to get things back on track as they assess the Round 8 lines.

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At the Trough Rd 7

Submitted by Greg Oberscheidt on 17/05/2012

The Bombers notched another win bolstering their top four aspirations. The Blues blew their chance to hold top spot after Rd 7 for the first time since Moses wore shorts. Adelaide belted the Cats and the Hawks wayward ways let a percentage boost go begging. Brad Scott was clearly frustrated by the umpires interpretation of Jack Zeibell’s slide and Taylor Walker fronts the judiciary again. We’ll take a look at the highs and lows of Rd 7.

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Try Line Picks: Round 11

Submitted by Anonymous on 17/05/2012
Cowboys - Line: 5.00 Bet Units: SOO players Thurston, Scott, Tate and Tamou exit the Cowboys side, Luke Lewis and Jennings (from reserve grade) exit the Panthers. The Cowboys have plenty of points in them still with Bowen, Thompson, Payne and Segeyaro rating very well in 2012 - they lack some punch and metres in the middle now but have a strong bench of Thorby, Bolton and Taumalalo that should outplay the Panthers interchange. The Panthers are struggling to keep pace in the yardage - in the last 4 weeks the Cowboys are averaging more than 280m than the Panthers, granted the Cowboys are missing their big men in Scott and Tamou, but the NQ forwards take on an average Panthers pack defensively. Kevin Kingston will play 80 minutes and work tirelessly, however they just do not have enough creativity in the halves if Kingston is just blocking the middle. The Cowboys will play tight early in sets and aim super fringe runners Cooper, Tariq Sims, and Linnet (who looks much bigger in 2012) at the small centres (Tighe and Daniella) of Penrith all night. The ratings state the Cowboys are strong enough across the park, subjective factors considered is the backing up after Monday night for Penrith, where they seemed right up for it - can they get up again in Townsville, a very tough ask against a side that needs to win this time of year - Cowboys to cover the line (-5.0 to -5.5)
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From The Couch: Round 10

Submitted by Nick Tedeschi on 15/05/2012

The Total and Utter Clusterfuck That is New South Wales Selection: Oh, where to start. Ricky Stuart and Bob Fulton could not have picked a worse New South Wales team if they tried. If I was in charge of the NSWRL, I would fire Stuart and Fulton now. I'd lock Fulton in a darkened underground one-man cell and never let him influence anybody in rugby league again. Stuart should be charged and imprisoned for fraud. He has destroyed any semblance of hope New South Welshmen should have.

So let's break this down, let's see why Ricky Stuart has made a mockery of the Blue jersey, his hypocrisy and his stupidity, along with the fantastic contribution of Bob Fulton, who has done so much to set back the NSW Origin team through his politicking and partisanship.

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Confessions of a Hacker - See ball, hit ball

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 15/05/2012

I was watching The PLAYERS Championship over the weekend and in particular, the struggles of Kevin Na. Despite being in contention for the title over the weekend (he led the field after 54 holes), the poor guy had seemingly lost all faith in his swing, judging by the number of times he got halfway through the backswing and then promptly pulled out of the shot. It all became too much on the final day as he posted a 76 to fall out of contention. Any club golfer worth their salt has done likewise at some stage, be it a particular ‘nemesis’ hole, a particular type of shot or a day where you simply cannot keep the ball in play. Some days the mental hurdles feel insurmountable. But how do you get past it?

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The Fantasy King: Round 10

Submitted by Anonymous on 15/05/2012

By Michael Adams

THE ORIGIN CONUNDRUM

Well, it’s finally here. The jewel in the crown of Rugby League, but the scourge of fantasy competition, State Of Origin season is upon us. I guess it adds another layer of intrigue and makes the strategy just that more difficult for fantasy players, but in no other sport do fantasy leagues have to deal with having a third of the season so profoundly disrupted. And this applies equally in real life, as the miles of column inches devoted to solving the Origin conundrum last season demonstrated. Teams such as the Broncos and the Storm have their seasons routinely disrupted by the representative season, while the wheels fell off completely and irrevocably for the Dragons last year after about half their top squad were picked at various stages over the three games.

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Monday Milestone: Mothers Day

Submitted by Doug Roweth on 14/05/2012

"Insanity is hereditary; you get it from your children"
- Sam Levenson

This Week in History:
1924, Mothers Day
Mrs Janet Hayden begins the tradition of Mothers Day in Australia.

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The NRL TV Rights: The Breakdown

Submitted by Nick Tedeschi on 13/05/2012

THE CONTENDERS

Nine
The current free-to-air rights holder and holder of rugby league rights since 1992. Generally regarded to pay significant unders for the code. Kerry Packer, the former owner of Nine, was a big league man and a big player in the Super League war and used his influence to ensure Nine kept the rights at well below market price. Packer is no longer about with Nine now owned by CVC Asia Pacific, a private equity firm with no emotional investment in rugby league. Nine owns stations along the eastern seaboard but Adelaide and Perth are affiliates and out of direct control. The station is currently saddled with $2.7 billion in debt. Is desperate to retain sole free-to-air rights and may look to boost the number of games covered a week to four. Currently shows three per week and only one live, along with State of Origin and other representative fixtures (which it did not show live this season), but will not pay overs out of some loyalty to the code. Have first and last rights. Also have a relatively tight agreement with Fox Sports to launch a joint bid if first bids are rejected, which they will be. Nine boss David Gyngell is confident, bordering on arrogant, adamant Nine won't lose the rights. "We've got such a strong belief in the product," Gyngell said. "We're fighting to the death for rugby league rights … Nine will not be losing the rights." Has not been seriously challenged for the rights in the past and has effectively abused that stagnation.

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The Early Line: Round 10

Submitted by Nick Tedeschi on 12/05/2012

In what seems to be the most absurd line of the week, Brisbane will start as an underdog for the first time all year against Manly at home, the Broncos receiving 1.5 to 2 points. Manly have won 6 of 8 against the Broncos including 4 of 5 at Suncorp Stadium and Broncos halfback Peter Wallace is missing but it seems absurd that the Eagles are favoured here. Brisbane have been clearly the second best team all year and they were good enough against a hot Warriors team last year. Brisbane are 19-11 ATS in their last 30 at home and 5-1 ATS since 2010 as a home underdog. Manly are just 1-5 ATS interstate since 2010. Bet the Broncos for 2.5 units.

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At the Trough Rd 6

Submitted by Greg Oberscheidt on 11/05/2012

 

Sliding at the contest is still a hot topic around the grounds with Greg Broughton nearly ending David Swallow’s season. The Bombers continue to impress and Karmichael Hunt is making plenty of critics eat their words. Collingwood are still in the winners circle but there must be some concern at the Westpac centre about the form of the pre season fancies. With the Eagles the only undefeated team after six rounds the ladder is starting to take some shape. Also…We wouldn’t mind a cover every now then!  Let’s take a look at the highlights and lowlights of the round that was.

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May 12 Racing Selections

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 11/05/2012

The run of outs continued last Saturday when Ladys Angel was run down in the home straight. One winner and ten freaking placings from the $6 to $9.50 SP range this season; three placings from the last five and four from the last eight, but no wins. I’m tipping with the effectiveness of a one-legged man in an arse-kicking contest right now…. and with that reverse jinx out of the way, tips for this weekend cover the May 12 meetings at Caulfield, Rosehill, Doomben (featuring the Group 1 BTC Cup) and Morphettville (featuring Black Caviar in the Group 1 Goodwood Handicap).

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ANZ Championships - Round 7 Tips

Submitted by Cliff Bingham on 11/05/2012

Last week’s outcomes took on a more familiar look, with the Firebirds and Magic both recording convincing victories to move within striking distance of the top four. The undefeated Vixens continue to lead the way though, and with four of their away games already done and dusted, they will take some catching for the minor premiership. Meanwhile last week was the first occasion this season where the tips of Three Feet Radio’s own Ben Carbonaro didn’t lead to any recommended bets. A mere statistical coincidence, or are the bookies adjusting lines to more closely match his tips? His thoughts on Round 7 may answer this and other related questions.

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